Shafak × CARE · Winter Market Assessment · September 2026
Winter Market Assessment
Can the markets of Azaz and Tal Refaat carry a winter cash response for the villages around them?
Contents
- 01Key findings03
- 02Method and coverage04
- 03Two markets compared05
- 04Winter items: who sells what06
- 05Supply and restocking07
- 06Access, inclusion and risks08
- 07Cash feasibility and recommendations09
Why this assessment
A winter cash response only works if markets can supply blankets, mattresses, stoves and fuel at scale and if everyone can reach them. This assessment asked traders and community figures in the two market towns that serve the assessed villages.
Companion assessment
It was run alongside the Needs Assessment of 64 households and key informants in Deir Jamal, Kafr Naseh, Misqan, Hardatnin and Tal Jabin. Read together, the two show whether cash is both wanted and workable.
Key findings
Yes, with conditions. Supply is resilient and access is open; prices and Tal Refaat’s thin stock of winter items are the risks to manage.
of traders can restock within 7 days
saw a significant price change in a month
of Tal Refaat traders restock from Azaz
say all groups have equal access
- Both markets are working and can restock within a week.All 30 traders said shops would restock within seven days if stock sold out quickly, and all described supply between marketplaces as easy.
- Azaz is deep; Tal Refaat is thin on winter items.Respondents in Azaz count about 30 blanket sellers and 30 stove sellers nearby; in Tal Refaat, about 9.5 and 6.
- Tal Refaat depends on Azaz.16 of 20 Tal Refaat traders restock from Azaz, which in turn draws on Türkiye, Aleppo and Idleb. A shock in Azaz reaches Tal Refaat's villages within days.
- Two different risks: damage in Tal Refaat, prices in Azaz.Every Tal Refaat respondent reported destroyed shops and damaged roads but more customers; every Azaz respondent reported intact shops and good roads but fewer customers and high prices as the main threat.
- Prices are moving.All 30 traders said prices of key commodities changed significantly over the past month. The tool's price tables were not filled in, so levels are unknown.
- Access is open to all, but shops are run by men.All 33 respondents said women, older people and people with disabilities can reach the market and that transport exists; 32 of 33 said traders are mostly men.
02Method and coverage
Three Shafak enumerators interviewed 33 people in the market towns of Azaz and Tal Refaat on 21 and 22 September 2026, using CARE's winter market assessment tool.
| Respondent | Azaz | Tal Refaat | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Retail vendor | 5 | 12 | 17 |
| Wholesaler | 2 | 8 | 10 |
| Trader | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| Local business figure | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Religious figure | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Local council member | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Total | 13 | 20 | 33 |
Stock, staffing, pricing and restocking questions went to the 30 market actors; the three community figures answered the market-wide questions only.
Restock sources named by traders; line weight = number of traders.
Limits
The price sections of the tool (commodities by shop size) were left empty in every interview, so this report describes the direction of prices, not their level. Counts of sellers per item are respondents' estimates, and several respondents gave the same round figures. Restock sources were recorded as free text and coded by town.
03Two markets compared
The two towns sit 13 km apart and tell opposite stories. Tal Refaat is recovering: shops are damaged but customers are returning. Azaz is intact and well stocked but slowing, squeezed by prices.
| Azaz (n=13) | Tal Refaat (n=20) | |
|---|---|---|
| Shops in the marketplace (median) | 50 | 60 |
| Some shops destroyed | 0% (0/13) | 100% (20/20) |
| Roads to market damaged | 0% (0/13) | 100% (20/20) |
| More customers than last month | 0% (0/13) | 100% (20/20) |
| Rules exist for traders | 0% (0/13) | 85% (17/20) |
| High prices named as main threat | 100% (13/13) | 0% (0/20) |
| Can restock within 7 days | 100% (10/10) | 100% (20/20) |
| Serve IDPs and host community | 100% (13/13) | 95% (19/20) |
Respondents' stock
n = 30 · market actors, multiple answers
Staff per shop
n = 30
Shops are small, family-scale businesses: most employ two or three people. This favours cash delivered through many retailers rather than a few large suppliers.
04Winter items: who sells what
Respondents estimated how many market actors sell each winter item in their area. Azaz reports around 30 sellers for almost every item and 50 for heating fuel. Tal Refaat reports a handful of sellers of blankets, mattresses, stoves and carpets.
Median of respondents' estimates. Scale 0–55 sellers.
What this means
A cash transfer for bedding and heating would push demand into Tal Refaat's few sellers first, since it is closest to the villages. Without notice, those shops could run short or raise prices, sending families to Azaz and adding transport costs.
Heating fuel has the widest gap: a median of 50 sellers in Azaz against 8 in Tal Refaat. Olive-pit (pirina) and coal sellers are fewest in both towns, so households relying on them will be the first to face shortages.
05Supply and restocking
Supply chains are short and working. Azaz draws on Türkiye, Aleppo and Idleb; Tal Refaat restocks mainly from Azaz, with Aleppo second. All traders expect to restock within a week and describe roads between markets as secure.
Restock sources, all traders
n = 30 · multiple answers
Restock sources by market
| Azaz n=10 | Tal Refaat n=20 | |
|---|---|---|
| Azaz | 0% | 80% |
| Aleppo city | 90% | 40% |
| Türkiye (imports) | 100% | 0% |
| Idleb | 90% | 5% |
| Afrin | 0% | 15% |
| Al-Bab | 0% | 5% |
n = 30
can restock within 7 days
describe supply between markets as easy
add unprompted that roads and security are good
name Aleppo city as a source
Single point of dependence. Because Tal Refaat's winter stock comes largely through Azaz, any disruption on the Azaz–Tal Refaat road, or a price jump in Azaz, will pass straight to the assessed villages. Monitoring should follow both towns together.
06Access, inclusion and risks
Respondents were unanimous that markets are open to everyone. The risks lie elsewhere: physical damage in Tal Refaat and price pressure in Azaz.
equal access for women, older people and minorities
people with disabilities can reach the market
transport to market is available
say traders are mostly men
Threats to market functioning
| Azaz n=13 | Tal Refaat n=20 | |
|---|---|---|
| High prices | 100% | 0% |
| No threat reported | 0% | 100% |
n = 33
Change in customers vs last month
| Azaz n=13 | Tal Refaat n=20 | |
|---|---|---|
| Increased | 0% | 100% |
| Decreased | 100% | 0% |
n = 33
Reading the risk
In Tal Refaat, returns are bringing customers back to a market with destroyed shops and damaged roads; heavy rain could cut access to outlying villages. In Azaz, shops and roads are fine, but high prices are already the main threat and customer numbers are falling.
Women in the market. Access is reported as equal, but 32 of 33 respondents say traders are mostly men. Post-distribution checks should ask women directly whether they shop in person and feel comfortable doing so.
07Cash feasibility and recommendations
Both markets can absorb a winter cash response. The conditions are a price check first, a buffer against inflation, and preparing Tal Refaat's small winter-item trade for the demand.
| Condition for cash | Azaz | Tal Refaat |
|---|---|---|
| Markets functioning | Yes | Yes, with damage |
| Winter items available in volume | Yes (≈30 sellers per item) | Limited (5–10 per item) |
| Restock within 7 days | Yes | Yes, via Azaz |
| Physical access | Good roads | Damaged roads |
| Price stability | Main threat | Changing |
- Cash is feasible in both markets. Supply is resilient (100% restock within a week), access is open to all groups, and households say price, not availability, is their barrier.
- Run a rapid price check of the winter basket before fixing the transfer value: blankets, mattresses, stoves, heating fuel, plastic sheeting. The tool's price tables were not completed.
- Build a price buffer into the transfer and monitor weekly in both towns, since all traders saw significant price changes and Azaz names high prices as its main threat.
- Give Tal Refaat traders advance notice of distribution dates and expected volumes so they can stock blankets, mattresses, stoves and fuel through Azaz ahead of demand.
- Add a transport allowance for the more distant villages if Tal Refaat sells out and families must travel to Azaz, and watch road access once the rains start.
- Check women's market experience in post-distribution monitoring and keep a feedback channel open, given that shops are run almost entirely by men.
Data collected by Shafak with CARE, 21–22 September 2026.